Insulin Use and The Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Insights and Implications.

In recent years, the incidence of diabetes mellitus and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been increasing worldwide, in the context of an increasing prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). In patients with diabetes mellitus, exogenous insulin is commonly prescribed and used in long-term settings. Recent studies suggest that insulin use may elevate the risk of HCC. A substantial body of work seeks to unpack the association between insulin use and the risk of developing HCC, although there may be conflicting evidence. Further validation is necessary to clarify the true relationship between insulin mechanisms and its hepatocarcinogenic effect. Given the burden of diabetic patients developing HCC, diabetologists and hepatologists must collaborate, particularly regarding the prevention and surveillance of HCC in diabetic patients.

Prognostic analysis of sex and age in hepatocellular carcinoma: a SEER study.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to explore the impact of sex on clinical features and survival among hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. METHODS: HCC case data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for the period 2010 to 2015 were selected for analysis. Kaplan-Meier curves displayed overall survival. Univariate cox regression examined the prognostic characteristics of individual features, and multivariate Cox regression assessed hazard ratios. RESULTS: This study comprised 3486 HCC patients, with 2682 males and 804 females. Across all age groups, there was a higher prevalence of males compared to females. Survival curves among female patients showed no significant differences across various age groups. However, among male patients, those under 60 demonstrated notably higher survival rates compared to those aged 60 and above. Regarding various ethnicities, TNM staging systems, tumor sizes, the presence of lung/bone/brain metastases, location in Purchased/Referred Care Delivery Areas, SEER historic stages, tumor grades, and individuals receiving chemotherapy, the proportion of male patients consistently exceeded that of female patients. Within the female patient group, individuals receiving chemotherapy exhibited significantly higher survival rates compared to those who did not. However, the administration of chemotherapy showed no significant impact on the survival rate of male patients. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed age, gender, and the administration of chemotherapy key factors influencing the overall survival prognosis. CONCLUSION: Age, gender, and the administration of chemotherapy are influential factors in the prognosis of both male and female HCC patients.

Developing deep learning-based strategies to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease from electronic health records.

OBJECTIVE: The accuracy of deep learning models for many disease prediction problems is affected by time-varying covariates, rare incidence, covariate imbalance and delayed diagnosis when using structured electronic health records data. The situation is further exasperated when predicting the risk of one disease on condition of another disease, such as the hepatocellular carcinoma risk among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease due to slow, chronic progression, the scarce of data with both disease conditions and the sex bias of the diseases. The goal of this study is to investigate the extent to which the aforementioned issues influence deep learning performance, and then devised strategies to tackle these challenges. These strategies were applied to improve hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. METHODS: We evaluated two representative deep learning models in the task of predicting the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma in a cohort of patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (n = 220,838) from a national EHR database. The disease prediction task was carefully formulated as a classification problem while taking censorship and the length of follow-up into consideration. RESULTS: We developed a novel backward masking scheme to deal with the issue of delayed diagnosis which is very common in EHR data analysis and evaluate how the length of longitudinal information after the index date affects disease prediction. We observed that modeling time-varying covariates improved the performance of the algorithms and transfer learning mitigated reduced performance caused by the lack of data. In addition, covariate imbalance, such as sex bias in data impaired performance. Deep learning models trained on one sex and evaluated in the other sex showed reduced performance, indicating the importance of assessing covariate imbalance while preparing data for model training. CONCLUSIONS: The strategies developed in this work can significantly improve the performance of hepatocellular carcinoma risk prediction among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease. Furthermore, our novel strategies can be generalized to apply to other disease risk predictions using structured electronic health records, especially for disease risks on condition of another disease.

Meta-analysis: Incidence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with Fontan palliation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Fontan palliation is the final stage of surgery for many children born with univentricular physiology. Almost all Fontan patients develop liver fibrosis which may eventually lead to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). These are important causes of morbidity and mortality in these patients. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the incidence of cirrhosis and HCC in Fontan patients and stratify it based on time since surgery. METHODS: A literature search of seven databases identified 1158 records. Studies reporting the number of cirrhosis and HCC cases in Fontan patients and time since Fontan surgery were included. In the cirrhosis cohort, we included only those studies where all patients underwent liver biopsy. RESULTS: A total of 23 studies were included: 12 and 13 studies in the cirrhosis and HCC cohorts, respectively, with two studies included in both cohorts. The incidence of cirrhosis was 0.97 per 100 patient-years (95% CI 0.57-1.63), with the incidence and cumulative incidence ≥20 years post Fontan surgery being 1.61 per 100 patient-years (95% CI 1.24-2.08) and 32.2% (95% CI 25.8%-39.4%), respectively. The incidence of HCC was 0.12 per 100 patient-years (95% CI 0.07-0.21), with the incidence and cumulative incidence ≥20 years post Fontan surgery being 0.20 per 100 patient-years (95% CI 0.12-0.35) and 3.9% (95% CI 2.2%-6.8%), respectively. Only about 70% of patients with HCC (20/28) had underlying cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: The incidence of cirrhosis and HCC increases over time, especially at ≥20 years post Fontan surgery. Studies are needed to further identify at-risk patients in order to streamline surveillance for these highly morbid conditions.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospitalizations with hepatocellular carcinoma in the United States.

BACKGROUND: We studied the temporal trends of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)-related hospitalizations and potential predictors of in-hospital mortality around the COVID-19 pandemic. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Using the International Classification of Diseases code, we used the National Inpatient Sample 2019-2020 and defined HCC and its underlying etiology. To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospitalization and in-hospital mortality, the study period was divided into the pre-COVID-19 era (2019 Q1-2020 Q1) and the COVID-19 era (2020 Q2-2020 Q4). Quarterly trends in etiology-based hospitalizations with HCC and predictors of in-hospital mortality among hospitalizations with HCC were determined. RESULTS: Hospitalization rates for HCC, as well as viral hepatitis-related HCC hospitalization rates, remained stable, while hospitalizations with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD, quarterly percentage change [QPC]: 2.1%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1%-4.2%) increased steadily. Hospitalization related to nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related HCC increased significantly steeper in the COVID-19 era (QPC: 6.6%; 95% CI: 4.0%-9.3%) than in the pre-COVID-19 era (QPC: 0.7%; 95% CI: 0.2%-1.3%). COVID-19 infection was independently associated with in-hospital mortality among hospitalizations with HCC (odds ratio: 1.94, 95% CI: 1.30-2.88). CONCLUSION: Hospitalization rates for viral hepatitis-related HCC remained stable, while those for HCC due to ALD and NAFLD increased during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The impact of COVID-19 on the diagnosis and treatment of HCC: analysis of a nationwide registry for advanced liver diseases (REAL).

The number of cancer cases diagnosed during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has decreased. This study investigated the impact of the pandemic on the clinical practice of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using a novel nationwide REgistry for Advanced Liver diseases (REAL) in Japan. We retrieved data of patients initially diagnosed with HCC between January 2018 and December 2021. We adopted tumor size as the primary outcome measure and compared it between the pre-COVID-19 (2018 and 2019) and COVID-19 eras (2020 and 2021). We analyzed 13,777 patients initially diagnosed with HCC (8074 in the pre-COVID-19 era and 5703 in the COVID-19 era). The size of the maximal intrahepatic tumor did not change between the two periods (mean [SD] = 4.3 [3.6] cm and 4.4 [3.6] cm), whereas the proportion of patients with a single tumor increased slightly from 72.0 to 74.3%. HCC was diagnosed at a similar Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage. However, the proportion of patients treated with systemic therapy has increased from 5.4 to 8.9%. The proportion of patients with a non-viral etiology significantly increased from 55.3 to 60.4%. Although the tumor size was significantly different among the etiologies, the subgroup analysis showed that the tumor size did not change after stratification by etiology. In conclusion, the characteristics of initially diagnosed HCC remained unchanged during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, regardless of differences in etiology. A robust surveillance system should be established particularly for non-B, non-C etiology to detect HCC in earlier stages.

Prevalence of Malnutrition in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Comparative Study of GLIM Criteria, NRS2002, and PG-SGA, and Identification of Independent Risk Factors.

AIM: Malnutrition is prevalent in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, linked to poor outcomes, necessitating early intervention. This study aimed to investigate malnutrition in HCC patients, assess Nutrition Risk Screening 2002 (NRS-2002) and Patient-Generated Subjective Global Assessment (PG-SGA) vs. Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) criteria, and identify independent risk factors. METHOD: A cross-sectional retrospective study was conducted on 207 patients with HCC. Nutritional screening/assessment results and blood samples were collected within 72 h of admission. This study assessed the prevalence of malnutrition using the NRS-2002 and PG-SGA and retrospectively using the GLIM criteria. The performance of the screening tools was evaluated using kappa (K) values. Logistic regression analyses were performed to determine whether laboratory parameters were associated with malnutrition as identified by the GLIM criteria. RESULTS: Of the participants, 30.4% were at risk of malnutrition according to NRS-2002. The agreement between the NRS-2002 and GLIM criteria was substantial. The GLIM criteria and PG-SGA diagnosed malnutrition in 43 and 54.6% of the participants, respectively. Age, anemia, and ascites correlated with malnutrition in regression. CONCLUSION: The GLIM criteria, along with NRS-2002 and PG-SGA, aid in diagnosing malnutrition in HCC patients. Recognizing risk factors improves accuracy, enabling timely interventions for better outcomes.

Incidence and Risk Factor of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Liver Transplant: Results From a Single Clinic.

OBJECTIVES: Although liver transplant is highly effective for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma, guidance on tailored posttransplant management to optimize outcomes is lacking. We examined the incidence and pretransplant radiological scans and indicators of tumor marker associated with posttransplant hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We reviewed outcomes of 34 hepatocellular carcinoma candidates aged ≥18 years who underwent living-donor liver transplant between January 2016 and January 2023. The primary outcome was biopsy-proven posttransplant hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence at any site. We used Kaplan-Meier analysis to calculate cumulative incidence and Cox regression to identify predictors of posttransplant hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence. RESULTS: Among 34 transplant candidates, median age was 44 years, 84% had hepatitis C, median laboratory Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score was 18, and median pretransplant α-fetoprotein level was 235 ng/dL. From imaging scans pretransplant, 74% of candidates met Milan criteria. Median wait time to transplant was 67 days, and 23% received pretransplant locoregional therapy. Seven (20.5%) had hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after median of 1.4 years, with cumulative incidences of 4 (11.7%) and 3 (8.8%) at 1 and 2 years posttransplant. Pretransplant number of lesions (P = .015), largest lesion diameter (P = .008), and higher amount of tumor markers (P = .002) were significant predictors of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after adjusting for pretransplant locoregional therapy and wait time. Posttransplant hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence (P < .001) and higher amount of tumor markers (P = .029) were associated with lower posttransplant survival. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence was significantly associated with the number and size of lesions at the time of livingdonor liver transplant and amount of tumor markers. Risk stratification using a predictive model for posttransplant hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence based on pretransplant imaging and tumor markers may help guide candidate selection and tailoring of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance strategy after living-donor liver transplant.

The dynamic variation position and predominant quasispecies of hepatitis B virus: Novel predictors of early hepatocarcinoma.

To find the predictors of early HCC based on the dynamic changes of HBV quasispecies, this study utilizing the second-generation sequencing (NGS) and high-order multiplex droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) technology to examine the HBV quasispecies in serum of total 247 subjects recruited from high-incidence area of HCC. In the discovery stage, 15 non-synonymous Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) with higher variant proportion in HCC case group were founded (all P<0.05). Furthermore, the variant proportions in some of these SNPs were observed changing regularly within 5 years before the onset of HCC, and 5 of them located in HBX, 2 in HBS and 2 in HBC. The HBV predominant quasispecies and their consensus sequences were identified by genetic evolution analysis, in which the high HBS and HBC quasispecies heterogeneity were found associated with the forming of multifarious quasispecies clones, and the HBX gene had the highest proportion of predominant quasispecies (46.7 % in HBX vs 12.7 % and 13.8 % in HBS and HBC respectively) with the key variations (G1512A, A1630G, T1753C/G/A, A1762T and G1764A) determined. In the validation stage, we confirmed that the combined double mutations of G1512A+A1630G, A1762T+G1764A, and the combined triple mutations of T1753C/G/A + A1762T+G1764A, all expressed higher in early HCC cases when comparing with control group (all P<0.05). We also demonstrated the advantages of ddPCR using in multi-variations detection in large-sample for early HCC surveillance and screening. So we think that the dynamic of key HBV variation positions and their different combinations determined by quasispecies anlysis in this study can act as the novel predictors of early hepatocarcinoma and suitable to popularize and apply in HCC screening.

Changing spectrum and mortality disparities of etiology of liver cirrhosis in Beijing, China.

Liver cirrhosis remains a major health concern globally, but its epidemiology and etiology evolve with time. However, the changing pattern in etiology and cause of liver-related mortality for patients with cirrhosis are not fully elucidated. Herein, our aim was to characterize the temporal trend of the etiological spectrum and evaluate the impact of etiology on liver-related death among patients with compensated cirrhosis (CC) in Beijing, China. Clinical profiles of patients with CC discharged between January 2008 and December 2015 were retrieved from the Beijing hospital discharge database. The mortalities of different etiologies of cirrhosis were calculated. The risks of readmission and liver-related death associated with etiologies were evaluated by the Cox regression model. A total of 23 978 cirrhotic patients were included. The predominant cause was hepatitis B virus (HBV) (58.93%), followed by alcohol (21.35%), autoimmune (14.85%), miscellaneous etiologies (3.55%), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) (1.32%). From 2008 to 2015, the proportion of HBV-related cirrhosis decreased to 28.11%. Meanwhile, the proportions of autoimmune- and miscellaneous-related cirrhosis increased to 28.54% and 13.11%. The risk of liver-related death ranked the highest in patients with miscellaneous cirrhosis, followed by HBV-related cirrhosis, alcohol-related cirrhosis, autoimmune-related cirrhosis, and HCV-related cirrhosis. The 5-year rates of liver-related death were 22.56%, 18.99%, 18.77%, 16.01%, and 10.76%, respectively. HBV-related cirrhosis caused the highest risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)-related death, whereas alcohol- and miscellaneous-related cirrhosis caused higher risks of decompensation (DC)-related death than HBV-related cirrhosis, with hazard ratios of 1.35 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.24-1.48) and 1.20 (95% CI: 1.03-1.40), respectively. HBV remained a common cause of liver cirrhosis but gradually decreased. Mortality disparities existed in etiologies, with higher risks of HCC-related death in HBV-related cirrhosis, and DC-related death in alcohol- and miscellaneous-related cirrhosis.

Evaluation of patients treated with direct-acting anti-viral therapy for chronic hepatitis C and their risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND & AIM: To evaluate the risk of early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis C patients treated with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in Hong Kong, as it has not been studied before in this locality. METHODS: Three hundred thirty-three consecutive chronic hepatitis C patients treated with DAAs from two hospitals over the past 6 years were identified. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate cumulative HCC incidence. Cox regression was used to identify factors associated with HCC development. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 23.4 months after DAA started, 15 (5.4%, 95% CI 3.3-8.7%) out of 279 total included patients developed HCC. The overall sustained virological response (SVR) rate was 98.9%. The 1-year cumulative incidence for de-novo HCC and HCC recurrence were 0.8 and 30.9%, respectively (log-rank test p < 0.001). The 1-year cumulative HCC incidence for patients without and with cirrhosis were 0.7 and 5.1%, respectively (log-rank test p = 0.036). Univariate analysis showed that significant factors associated with HCC after DAA were: history of treated HCC, cirrhosis, evidence of portal hypertension, higher AFP at the start or end of DAA therapy, higher bilirubin, lower platelets, lower albumin, and older age. From receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the optimal cut-off level of AFP for predicting HCC was 10.5 ng/mL at the start and 5.6 ng/mL at the end of DAA therapy. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of early HCC recurrence remains high despite achieving SVR following DAA therapy, whereas the risk of early de-novo HCC occurence is low. AFP levels, both at the start and end of DAA therapy, can be useful in stratifying risks of HCC development.

The evolving phenotype of autoimmune hepatitis across the millennium: The 40-year experience of a referral centre in Italy.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: During recent years, there have been major insight into the pathogenesis, diagnosis and treatment of autoimmune hepatitis (AIH). We aim to evaluate modifications of the clinical-epidemiological phenotype of AIH patients from 1980 to our days. METHODS: Single-centre, tertiary care retrospective study on 507 consecutive Italian patients with AIH. Patients were divided into four subgroups according to the decade of diagnosis: 1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2010 and 2011-2020. We assessed clinical, laboratory and histological features at diagnosis, response to treatment and clinical outcomes. Acute presentation is defined as transaminase levels >10-fold the upper limit and/or bilirubin >5 mg/dL. Complete response is defined as the normalization of transaminases and IgG after 12 months. Clinical progression is defined as the development of cirrhosis in non-cirrhotic patients and hepatic decompensation/hepatocellular carcinoma development in compensated cirrhosis. RESULTS: Median age at diagnosis increased across decades (24, 31, 39, 52 years, p < .001). Acute onset became more common (39.6%, 44.4%, 47.7%, 59.5%, p = .019), while cirrhosis at diagnosis became less frequent (36.5%, 16.3%, 10.8%, 8.7%, p < .001). Complete response rates rose (11.1%, 49.4%, 72.7% 76.2%, p < .001) and clinical progression during follow-up decreased (54.3%, 29.9%, 16.9%, 11.2%, p < .001). Anti-nuclear antibodies positivity increased (40.7%, 52.0%, 73.7%, 79.3%, p < .001), while IgG levels/upper limit progressively decreased (1.546, 1.515, 1.252, 1.120, p < .001). Liver-related death and liver transplantation reduced from 17.1% to 2.1% (p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: In the new millennium, the typical AIH patient in Italy is older at diagnosis, more often presents with acute hepatitis, cirrhosis is less frequent and response to treatment is more favourable.

Penetrance, cancer incidence and survival in HFE haemochromatosis-A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Haemochromatosis is characterized by progressive iron overload affecting the liver and can cause cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. Most haemochromatosis patients are homozygous for p.C282Y in HFE, but only a minority of individuals with this genotype will develop the disease. The aim was to assess the penetrance of iron overload, fibrosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and life expectancy. METHODS: A total of 8839 individuals from the Austrian region of Tyrol were genotyped for the p.C282Y variant between 1997 and 2021. Demographic, laboratory parameters and causes of death were assessed from health records. Penetrance, survival, and cancer incidence were ascertained from diagnosed cases, insurance- and cancer registry data. Outcomes were compared with a propensity score-matched control population. RESULTS: Median age at diagnosis in 542 p.C282Y homozygous individuals was 47.8 years (64% male). At genotyping, the prevalence of iron overload was 55%. The cumulative penetrance of haemochromatosis defined as the presence of provisional iron overload was 24.2% in males and 10.5% in females aged 60 years or younger. Among p.C282Y homozygotes of the same ages, the cumulative proportion of individuals without fibrosis (FIB-4 score < 1.3) was 92.8% in males and 96.7% in females. Median life expectancy was reduced by 6.8 years in individuals homozygous for p.C282Y when compared with population-matched controls (p = .001). Hepatocellular carcinoma incidence was not significantly higher in p.C282Y homozygotes than in controls matched for age and sex. CONCLUSION: Reduced survival and the observed age-dependent increase in penetrance among p.C282Y homozygotes call for earlier diagnosis of haemochromatosis to prevent complications.

The adverse characteristics of hepatocellular carcinoma in the non-cirrhotic liver disproportionately disadvantage Black patients.

BACKGROUND: Black patients have higher hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)-related mortality than White patients and more often develop HCC in non-cirrhotic liver. HCC surveillance is primarily directed toward cirrhotic patients. We aimed to characterize HCC in non-cirrhotic patients and to identify factors associated with HCC beyond Milan criteria. METHODS: Demographic, imaging, laboratory, and pathology data of HCC patients at our institution, 2003-2018, were reviewed, retrospectively. Race/ethnicity were self-reported. Cirrhosis was defined as a Fibrosis-4 score ≥3.25. RESULTS: Compared to 1146 cirrhotic patients, 411 non-cirrhotic patients had larger tumors (median 4.7 cm vs. 3.1 cm, p < 0.01) and were less likely to be within Milan criteria (42.6% vs. 57.7%, p < 0.01). Among non-cirrhotic patients, Black patients had larger tumors (4.9 cm vs. 4.3 cm, p < 0.01) and a higher percentage of poorly differentiated tumors (39.4% vs. 23.1%, p = 0.02). Among cirrhotic patients, Black patients had larger tumors (3.3 cm vs. 3.0 cm, p = 0.03) and were less likely to be within Milan criteria (52.3% vs. 83.2%, p < 0.01). In multivariable analysis, lack of commercial insurance (OR 1.45 [CI 95% 1.19-1.83], p < 0.01), male sex (OR 1.34 [CI 95% 1.05-1.70], p < 0.01), absence of cirrhosis (OR 1.58 [CI 95% 1.27-1.98], p < 0.01) and Black race/ethnicity (OR 1.34 [CI 95% 1.09-1.66], p = 0.01) were associated with HCC beyond Milan criteria. Black patients had lower survival rates than other patients (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Non-cirrhotic patients had more advanced HCC than cirrhotic patients. Black patients (with or without cirrhosis) had more advanced HCC than comparable non-Black patients and higher mortality rates. Improved access to healthcare (commercial insurance) may increase early diagnosis (within Milan criteria) and reduce disparities.

Cell-free DNA testing for early hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis (LC) is the highest risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development worldwide. The efficacy of the guideline-recommended surveillance methods for patients with LC remains unpromising. METHODS: A total of 4367 LCs not previously known to have HCC and 510 HCCs from 16 hospitals across 11 provinces of China were recruited in this multi-center, large-scale, cross-sectional study. Participants were divided into Stage Ⅰ cohort (510 HCCs and 2074 LCs) and Stage Ⅱ cohort (2293 LCs) according to their enrollment time and underwent Tri-phasic CT/enhanced MRI, US, AFP, and cell-free DNA (cfDNA). A screening model called PreCar Score was established based on five features of cfDNA using Stage Ⅰ cohort. Surveillance performance of PreCar Score alone or in combination with US/AFP was evaluated in Stage Ⅱ cohort. FINDINGS: PreCar Score showed a significantly higher sensitivity for the detection of early/very early HCC (Barcelona stage A/0) in contrast to US (sensitivity of 51.32% [95% CI: 39.66%-62.84%] at 95.53% [95% CI: 94.62%-96.38%] specificity for PreCar Score; sensitivity of 23.68% [95% CI: 14.99%-35.07%] at 99.37% [95% CI: 98.91%-99.64%] specificity for US) (P < 0.01, Fisher's exact test). PreCar Score plus US further achieved a higher sensitivity of 60.53% at 95.08% specificity for early/very early HCC screening. INTERPRETATION: Our study developed and validated a cfDNA-based screening tool (PreCar Score) for HCC in cohorts at high risk. The combination of PreCar Score and US can serve as a promising and practical strategy for routine HCC care. FUNDING: A full list of funding bodies that contributed to this study can be found in Acknowledgments section.

Virological, serological and clinical outcomes in chronic hepatitis B virus infection: development and validation of the HEPA-B simulation model.

OBJECTIVES: Detailed simulation models are needed to assess strategies for prevention and treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, the world's leading cause of liver disease. We sought to develop and validate a simulation model of chronic HBV that incorporates virological, serological and clinical outcomes. METHODS: We developed a novel Monte Carlo simulation model (the HEPA-B Model) detailing the natural history of chronic HBV. We parameterised the model with epidemiological data from the Western Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa. We simulated the evolution of HBV DNA, 'e' antigen (HBeAg) and surface antigen (HBsAg). We projected incidence of HBeAg loss, HBsAg loss, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death over 10-year and lifetime horizons. We stratified outcomes by five HBV DNA categories at the time of HBeAg loss, ranging from HBV DNA<300 copies/mL to >106 copies/mL. We tested goodness of fit using intraclass coefficients (ICC). RESULTS: Model-projected incidence of HBeAg loss was 5.18% per year over lifetime (ICC, 0.969 (95% CI: 0.728 to 0.990)). For people in HBeAg-negative phases of infection, model-projected HBsAg loss ranged from 0.78% to 3.34% per year depending on HBV DNA level (ICC, 0.889 (95% CI: 0.542 to 0.959)). Model-projected incidence of cirrhosis was 0.29-2.09% per year (ICC, 0.965 (95% CI: 0.942 to 0.979)) and HCC incidence was 0.06-1.65% per year (ICC, 0.977 (95% CI: 0.962 to 0.986)). Over a lifetime simulation of HBV disease, mortality rates were higher for people with older age, higher HBV DNA level and liver-related complications, consistent with observational studies. CONCLUSIONS: We simulated HBV DNA-stratified clinical outcomes with the novel HEPA-B Model and validated them to observational data. This model can be used to examine strategies of HBV prevention and management.

Combined Hepatitis B Virus and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Screening Using Point-of-Care Testing and Ultrasound in a Tanzanian Emergency Department.

The WHO aims to detect 90% of global cases of hepatitis B virus (HBV) by 2030. Sub-Saharan Africa carries a disproportionate burden of HBV and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this study, we sought to assess the utility of a combined HBV and HCC screening program in Tanzania. We conducted a prospective, serial cross-sectional study of patients who participated in a combined HBV and HCC screening program at a regional referral hospital emergency department (ED) in Arusha, Tanzania, between April 19, 2022 and June 3, 2022. All patients completed a study questionnaire and were tested for HBV surface antigen. Patients who were HBV positive were screened for HCC via point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS). The primary outcome was the number of new HBV diagnoses. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics. A total of 846 patients were tested for HBV (primary ED: 761, clinic referral: 85). The median age of patients was 44 ± 15 years, and 66% were female. Only 15% of patients reported having a primary care doctor. Thirteen percent of patients had been previously vaccinated for HBV. There were 17 new HBV diagnoses (primary ED: 16, clinic referral: 1), which corresponds to a seroprevalence of 2.0% (95% CI: 1.2%, 3.2%). No patients had liver masses detected on POCUS. An ED-based, combined HBV and HCC screening protocol can be feasibly implemented. This study could serve as a model for HBV/HCC screening in regions with high HBV endemicity and low rates of community screening.

Predictors of survival among patients with chronic hepatitis C at a tertiary care center in Oman.

BACKGROUND: Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is a leading cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. This study aimed to determine rates and predictors of survival among Omani patients with CHC at a tertiary hospital in Muscat, Oman. METHODS: This ambidirectional cohort study included all CHC patients who presented to the Sultan Qaboos University Hospital between January 2009 and December 2017. Baseline demographic, clinical, laboratory, and radiological data were analyzed. Patients were followed-up until death or the endpoint of the study (April 2022) to determine survival and associations with other parameters. RESULTS: A total of 702 CHC patients were included, of which 398 (56.7%) were under 50 years of age and 477 (67.9%) were male. Overall, 180 patients (25.6%) died by the study endpoint. The mean duration of follow-up was 93.3 ± 48.0 months. The 5-year survival rate was estimated to be 80.5%, while the 10-year survival was 73%. Sustained virological response and the absence of diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease, HCC, or other malignancies were associated with significantly better overall survival. The 3- and 5-year survival rate of patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related HCC was 46.5% and 27.6%, respectively, with a median survival of 29.5 months. Co-infection with hepatitis B was associated with poor survival among this subgroup; conversely, early HCV screening and the presence of a single HCC lesion were associated with better overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: National policies for early CHC screening and rapid treatment are needed to improve survival rates in this population.

Hepatic Fibrosis and Cancer: The Silent Threats of Metabolic Syndrome.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic (fatty) liver disease (MASLD), previously termed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, is a worldwide epidemic that can lead to hepatic inflammation, fibrosis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The disease is typically a component of the metabolic syndrome that accompanies obesity, and is often overlooked because the liver manifestations are clinically silent until late-stage disease is present (i.e., cirrhosis). Moreover, Asian populations, including Koreans, have a higher fraction of patients who are lean, yet their illness has the same prognosis or worse than those who are obese. Nonetheless, ongoing injury can lead to hepatic inflammation and ballooning of hepatocytes as classic features. Over time, fibrosis develops following activation of hepatic stellate cells, the liver's main fibrogenic cell type. The disease is usually more advanced in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, indicating that all diabetic patients should be screened for liver disease. Although there has been substantial progress in clarifying pathways of injury and fibrosis, there no approved therapies yet, but current research seeks to uncover the pathways driving hepatic inflammation and fibrosis, in hopes of identifying new therapeutic targets. Emerging molecular methods, especially single cell sequencing technologies, are revolutionizing our ability to clarify mechanisms underlying MASLD-associated fibrosis and HCC.